How does the outcome of COP28 relate to the balance between energy demand reduction, renewable energy, greenhouse gas emissions extraction from the atmosphere and climate change adaptation?
COP28, held in Dubai, marked a step in the global effort to address climate change, but how significant was it and how might it translate into practice? This article explores how the outcomes of the conference relate to the balance between energy demand reduction, renewable energy generation expansion, greenhouse gas emissions extraction, and climate change adaptation.
Transition Away from Fossil Fuels
COP28 made history with nearly every country agreeing to transition away from fossil fuels, which are the main drivers of climate change. This agreement marked the first such consensus in 28 years of international climate negotiations. However, there were concerns about the lack of a clear call for a fossil-fuel phase-out and loopholes that might allow the continuation of coal, oil, and gas production and consumption.
Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
A central commitment from COP28 was to triple the world’s installed renewable energy generation capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030. This commitment is an important contribution to reducing energy demand and transitioning to cleaner forms of energy. However, issues such as the "rebound effect", where improved energy efficiency could lead to increased energy use, and the need for a switch to sustainable power generation, remain challenges.
Climate Finance and Technology Deployment
Over $80 billion in climate finance commitments were made at COP28, although this fell short of the amount needed. There was a push for new financing mechanisms to spur additional investment in the transition to a low-carbon economy. It was acknowledged 90% of CO2 abatement required for net-zero targets could be achieved with existing climate technologies, but that their deployment needs to be accelerated. This includes scaling up the deployment of renewable energy technologies like solar and wind, which already account for a significant portion of electricity generation.
Heavy-Emissions Sectors and Global Cooperation
Sectors with heavy emissions, such as energy, transport, and industry, are vital to decarbonise as they consume about 78% of global energy demand. COP28 saw various agreements to accelerate decarbonisation in these sectors. Moreover, international cooperation, as seen in pledges by countries like Canada and the U.S. to reduce methane emissions and an agreement, led by the Netherlands, of a number of countries to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, highlights the global nature of the effort.
Climate Change Adaptation and Loss and Damage Fund
COP28 established a Loss and Damage Fund to support countries most severely affected by climate change. This fund, along with the Global Goal on Adaptation, emphasises the need to build resilience to the effects of climate change. The adaptation framework reflects improved global consensus on adaptation targets and the necessity for finance, technology, and capacity-building support to achieve them.
Conclusion
In order to meet the limit of 1.5oC temperature rise above pre-industrial levels, as proposed by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for avoidance of the worst irreversible effects of climate change, more than just energy demand reduction and energy efficiency will be required. Even if fossil fuel combustion is stopped today, the 1.5oC temperature limit is projected to be exceeded by 2050. In order to keep within the limit, methods of extraction of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere will need to be implemented. There is significant development is required of these methods for them to be viable and that is if fossil fuel combustion stops, which far from being the case currently. In conclusion, the outcomes of COP28, whilst heading in the right direction at a Governmental level, will not be enough in themselves to drive the change required and it is expected that more will need to be done at an organisational and individual level for the required progress to be made. Behaviour change will be essential and sustainable engineering can support.